US June 2025 CPI, Treasury yields, dollar strong, stock market, oil prices
Published: July 15–16, 2025
ews report: Source primarily Reuters and Somme Marketch
image source:pixabay.com
1.Inflation and pressure on price-driven inflation and CPI report :
- The U.S'' consumer price index (CPI) rose , 0.3% in June, the biggest monthly gain since January. On an annualized basis, the CPI rose 2.7%, up from 2.4% in May.
- Prices for specialty items—such as coffee, home furnishings, and audio equipment.were rising, a clear sign that the Trump administration’s new tariffs are weighing on inflation.
- However, overall price pressures have been limited as prices in the services sector have remained stable. In addition, analysts believe that “the impact of the tariffs is delayed and competitors are holding back some of the cost increases with their stockpiles.
- While the April-like inflation outlook is unlikely, the July and August CPI reports could provide more evidence of the tariff-driven price increases.
2.Tertiary yields hit record highs and the US dollar strengthened further :
- The 10-year Treasury yield hit, a one-month high of - 4.4950% (About 4.50%). 2-year yield is approximately-3.9503%.
- As a result, the US dollar is in a strong position against other major currencies, especially against the yen at a 4-month low of around 149.03.
- The dollar, the euro and the dollar, the pound, are at their respective lows on Forex.
3.Stock Market- Equities [Market Response :
- U.S. big banks such as JP Morgan and Citi have had mixed reactions to their earnings reports: Citi shares rose, JPMorgan fell slightly.
- Nasdaq hits new highs led by chip stocks, as Nvidia resumes AI chip sales in China.
- MSCI global equities index hits record high - But then drops back to zero.
4.Global economic growth-oil :
- Brent crude prices rise to ≈$69 per Barrel, While WTI is trading at $66.92, on Expectations of increased oil Demand amid improving Global Economy.
- Fuel demand from the U.S. And China to summer travel couple increase, which is to sub specific driving .
5.Fed calls for self-reliance and Trump's rate cut :
- President Trump's calls To remove or pressure Fed Chairman Powell are growing, Posing a major risk to the Fed's independence.
- If public and investor confidence in the Fed declines - Inflation expectations, bond yields and market volatility could rise.
.Trump's call for rate cuts
- Trump is Demanding That The Fed keep its policy rate at 1%, which will reduce the government's borrowing costs. But such a cut in a good economy could push up inflation again, destroy the credibility of the Fed's policies, and hurt bond markets.
- Also, the market is seeing—despite Trump's pressure—cracks in the Fed's independence that are showing overnight, and that could potentially push up long-term yields.
.Summary table :
Subject : information :
1.Inflation : 0.3% monthly in June, 2.7% annualized - tariff impact.
2. Treasury yields : 10 yr ≈ [ 4.50%], 2 yr ≈ [3.95%]
3. Dollar : is strong, especially higher against the yen .
4.Stock Market : Citi, JPMorgan; Nasdaq Record-Low .
5.Global equities : hit temporary record, then bounced back .
6.Oil price : WTI -$66.92;Brent -$69,Demand is increasing .
7.Fed's independence : Trump's Pressure on Fed Independence, Costing .
8.Rate cut demand : Low demand for rates: 1% overnight policy'' risk of inflation at boot
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